10k Words | September 2024
Apparently, Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in ads on the sides of streetcars...
Tech IPOs - there have been very few of them lately - but the unlisted world is bursting with “unicorns”. Now that the Fed has cut rates in September, what’s next? The market is not only oscillating around interest rate expectations but is also exhibiting volatility in the short time between the rate cut announcement and the press conference. We check in on PE multiples relative to historical levels by geography and sector, consider market moves in relation to risk premiums, then the performance of “AI” stocks. Finally we turn to the ASX’s recent reporting season and look at the average sector-based consenus revisions to nano-to-mid caps plus the stream of dividends flowing into investors’ accounts this month and next.
Technology IPOs
Source: Dealogic, PAC Partners
The number of active unicorns
Source: FT, PitchBook, European Commission
US Fed rate expectations for the Fed’s November meeting
Source: CME FedWatch
Changes in time to US Fed rate expectations for the Fed’s November meeting
Source: CME FedWatch
Fed cuts, employment & inflation
Source: Endeavour Equity Strategy
US equity and bond markets change direction between release of FOMC statement and Fed Chair press conference
Source: Mohamed A El-Erian, Bloomberg
MSCI regions’ 12-month forward PE multiples relative to the last 20 years
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Resesarch
MSCI world sector/style 12-month forward PE multiples relative to the last 20 years
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Resesarch
S&P 500 actual v level consistent with expected return range
Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors
Artificial Intelligence (AI) US equity baskets since 2023
Source: Bespoke
Changes in consensus estimates - average across sector - during month of August for ASX “FIT” nano-to-mid cap ASX listings
Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin
Weekly value of all ASX dividends to be paid in September & October 2024
Source: Coppo Report